NIPPON　FALCONS　LEAGUE

米輸出大国をめざす？

伊勢平次郎 — 2009-11-24T04:45:28+09:00

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since the equity rally began in March, the biggest U.S. stocks are beating the smallest as the dollar’s descent sends investors to companies with the most business in international markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of companies with $116.6 billion in median market value rose 7.9 percent this quarter, compared with the 0.2 percent loss by the Standard & Poor’s SmallCap 600 Index, whose members are worth $591.8 million on average. The Dow had trailed by 26 percentage points following the stock market’s low on March 9.

The largest corporations are winning now because they get more sales abroad, where growth in nations from Brazil to China exceeds the pace in the world’s biggest economy. The dollar’s drop helps Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc., Ford Motor Co. and McDonald’s Corp. by boosting the value of revenue when foreign earnings are brought back to the U.S.

“The large-cap multinational exposure to a weak dollar and non-dollar revenues has been causing them to outperform,” said Chris Hyzy, New York-based chief investment officer at U.S. Trust, a Bank of America Corp. unit overseeing about $188 billion. “That’s going to be stickier than many people believe. It’s not going to go away in the new year.”

Large Stock Shift

While the dollar has fallen since March, the 30-company Dow average didn’t start beating the rest of the stock market until this quarter. Now, investors are buying bigger stocks on concern the rally in equities will slow, said Henry Herrmann, the chief executive officer of Waddell & Reed Financial Inc., which manages $70 billion from Overland Park, Kansas. The S&P 500 posted its first monthly drop since February in October after a 56 percent jump and declined 0.2 percent last week to close at 1,091.38 on Nov. 20.

The Dow added 162.86 points, or 1.6 percent, to 10,481.02 at 10:51 a.m. in New York today. The S&P SmallCap 600 climbed 2.5 percent to 316.68.

The largest companies generate about 33 percent of their sales abroad, compared with 20 percent for the smallest, according to data compiled by Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America.

Smaller companies are at a disadvantage because the dollar has declined against all 16 of the most-active currencies this year as the government sold record levels of new debt to support the $11.6 trillion that it spent, lent or guaranteed to end the worst recession since the 1930s. The Dollar Index has lost 16 percent from its three-year high on March 5, the steepest retreat since 1986.

‘Quietly Very Pleased’

President Barack Obama “has to be quietly very pleased about it,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. “The dollar’s decline benefits big multinationals that happen to be getting a lot of their profits from abroad. That’s clear.”

Caterpillar, the biggest maker of bulldozers and excavators that got 66 percent of sales outside the U.S. in 2008, has added 16 percent this quarter on the New York Stock Exchange. Tokyo- based Komatsu Ltd., its top competitor, added 2.4 percent since Sept. 30.

Ford, the only major U.S. automaker to avoid bankruptcy, has risen 22 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with a 10 percent decline for Seoul-based Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea’s largest car manufacturer. Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford does 51 percent of its business abroad. South Korea’s won is the second- best performer among Asia’s 10 most-active currencies this year.

66% of Sales

McDonald’s has gained 12 percent since Sept. 30, while Darden Restaurants Inc., the owner of Olive Garden and Red Lobster, declined 6.4 percent.

Converting currencies into dollars will add 10 cents to 13 cents a share to 2010 profit at McDonald’s, the world’s largest restaurant chain said on Nov. 12. The Oak Brook, Illinois-based company, whose market value is more than 15 times bigger than Darden’s, gets 66 percent of sales from overseas, versus 3.6 percent at its Orlando, Florida-based rival.

“People are trying to determine who has pricing power, where can we see revenue growth, where is there potential for market expansion, where is the emerging market international exposure,” Waddell & Reed’s Herrmann said. “Most of those questions lead to the conclusion of bigger cap and higher quality.”

Better Returns

The dollar’s drop is also helping broader measures for the biggest U.S. companies outperform indexes for the smallest. The S&P 100 has risen 5.8 percent this quarter, compared with a 4.9 percent gain for the S&P 500 and 1.1 percent rise with the S&P MidCap 400. The Russell 2000 Index has lost 1 percent. Their median market capitalizations are $40 billion, $8.55 billion, $2.17 billion and $375 million, respectively.

Among companies in the S&P 500, those generating more than half their revenue abroad beat those doing business solely in the U.S. by 30 percentage points in 2009 through Nov. 17, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC, a Harrison, New York-based research firm. The stock measure has risen 61 percent since March 9.

Weakness in the U.S. currency will continue next year even after the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates, a move Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says is an “extended period” of time away, according to the top forecasters in Bloomberg’s ranking of 46 firms last month. Standard Chartered Plc, Aletti Gestielle SGR, HSBC Holdings Plc and Scotia Capital Inc. say the dollar will depreciate as much as 7.1 percent versus the euro.

Central Banks

Odds of a Fed increase don’t exceed 50 percent until September, according to trading in Fed funds futures contracts. The central bank cut its target rate for overnight loans between banks to as low as zero, a record, in December.

“Over the next 12 months, and more likely over the next few years, the dollar should fall,” said David Kelly, who helps oversee $480 billion as chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds in New York. “Large-cap companies do have more exposure to the rest of the world, so they should benefit.”

Record foreclosures, frozen credit markets and $1.72 billion in bank losses and writedowns from the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market prompted government rescue plans that have accelerated the dollar’s retreat.

Policy makers say they want to end the dollar’s plunge. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has argued for a strong dollar, calling it “extremely important” last month. Bernanke said during a Nov. 16 speech in New York that the Fed is “attentive” to changes in the currency’s value and “will help ensure that the dollar is strong.”

Amassing Reserves

To keep their currencies from appreciating too fast, governments in developing nations have amassed record foreign- exchange reserves as their central banks bought dollars. Brazil imposed a tax on foreign investments in October to end a rally that’s driven the real up 34 percent against the dollar in 2009.

International sales haven’t guaranteed stock gains. Chicago-based Boeing Co., which gets 39 percent of revenue abroad, cut its full-year profit forecast on Oct. 21 following $3.5 billion in charges for the delayed 787 Dreamliner and 747-8 jumbo jet programs. Its shares lost 2.6 percent since Sept. 30.

Emerging markets remain a draw for corporations. The U.S. unemployment rate is 10.2 percent, the highest level since 1983, and Americans cut spending for the first time in five months in September, according to the Commerce Department.

U.S. GDP

The median of 63 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show that the U.S. may expand 2.6 percent in 2010, after increasing at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter of 2009 following a year of contraction. Brazil, Latin America’s biggest economy, will grow 3.8 percent in 2010 and China, the most- populous nation, will gain 9.5 percent, according to the median forecasts.

“Large companies are in the sweet spot,” said Michael Obuchowski, chief investment officer of First Empire Asset Management Inc. in Hauppauge, New York, which oversees about $3.3 billion. “When the consumer is still slowly recovering, being able to boost the exports really helps the manufacturing part of the economy, the exporting part of the economy.”

怒る米国議会がオバマに向かって行った

伊勢平次郎 — 2009-11-20T20:39:50+09:00

Angry Congress lashes out at Obama

昨日、米国議会(両党が一緒になって）が大荒れに荒れた。「ガイトナーは雇われるべきでなかった」などと開口一番のテキサス共和党議員。NYの民主党シューマー議員は、オバマの強力な支持者だが、AIGでのガイトナーの責任をなじった。理由は、来年の１１月の中間選挙で、民主党が大敗すると恐れているからである。US議会の怒りは、オバマの経済政策に対して向かって行った。「黒人集会（BLACK・CAUCUS）は、全米９０％の黒人がオバマを支持してきた団体だ。これが、黒人が最も失業していることに怒った。「もうすぐ、失業問題でオバマは墜落する」と伊勢爺は言って来た。その通りになった。

オバマと民主党議会のハネムーンは終わった。北京で美味いメシを食い～万里の長城へ革ジャン姿でご満悦だったオバマは、こんな地獄がワシントンに待っているとは思わなかったであろう。アフガン増派を、サンクスギビング(来週木）後に発表すると言ってはいる。だが、このオバマ政権の墜落は目の前に来ている。伊勢平次郎　ルイジアナ

ECONOMIC WOES TAKING A TOLL
House Republicans call on Geithner to resign

By Brady Dennis, Zachary A. Goldfarb and Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, November 20, 2009

Growing discontent over the economy and frustration with efforts to speed its recovery boiled over Thursday on Capitol Hill in a wave of criticism and outright anger directed at the Obama administration.

Angry Congress lashes out at Obama

44: White House adviser open to additional stimulus
Episodes in both houses of Congress exposed the raw nerves of lawmakers flooded with stories of unemployment and economic hardship back home. They also underscored the stiff headwinds that the administration faces as it pushes to enact sweeping changes to the financial regulatory system while also trying to create jobs for ordinary Americans.

President Obama's allies in the Congressional Black Caucus, exasperated by the administration's handling of the economy, unexpectedly blocked one his top priorities, using a legislative maneuver to postpone the approval of financial reform legislation by a key House committee.

Two buildings away, at a session of the Joint Economic Committee, Republicans escalated their attacks on Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, including a call for his resignation.

"Conservatives agree that as point person, you failed. Liberals are growing in that consensus as well," said Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Tex.). "For the sake of our jobs, will you step down from your post?"

Rep. Michael C. Burgess (R-Tex.) took a different tack. "I don't think that you should be fired," he told Geithner. "I thought you should have never been hired."

Even Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), a friend of the administration, suggested that Geithner had been inconsistent in addressing China's practice of keeping its currency low against the dollar.

And Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) said Wednesday on MSNBC that he thinks Geithner should step down, pointing to his handling of the aftermath of American International Group's meltdown.

Across Capitol Hill, senators signaled their opposition to rushing regulatory reform. While some Democrats voiced reservations about parts of the bill, Republicans went further, faulting Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) for pushing ahead before the roots of the crisis were understood.

Perhaps most troubling for the administration was that one of the few measures to succeed Thursday was an amendment by Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) that would subject the Federal Reserve to unprecedented scrutiny. The amendment, which won bipartisan support in the House Financial Services Committee despite the reservations of administration officials, would allow the Government Accountability Office to audit all of the Fed's operations, including its decisions on interest rates and its transactions with foreign central banks.

Paul and allies in both parties -- more than 300 members of Congress have endorsed the measure -- are looking to increase oversight of an institution they consider partly to blame for the financial crisis. Federal officials and many private economists worry that the amendment could make future central bank policymakers reluctant to take unpopular steps to prevent inflation or support the economy for fear of second-guessing by Congress and government auditors.

The House committee had been set to vote to send the final piece of its regulatory reform package to the House floor after months of debate. That is, until the committee's chairman, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), told a shocked committee room that passage of the bill would be delayed until Dec. 1 because the Congressional Black Caucus wanted the administration to do more to help African American communities suffering in the economic decline.

Frank told committee members that black lawmakers were "frustrated by the response to the economic situation by the administration." He said the caucus had no issues with the legislation itself. "They want obviously to continue to have some bargaining power with the administration," he said after the hearing.

The caucus itself did not publicly detail its concerns Thursday, but one member, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), issued a statement: "The recession has created a unique systemic risk that threatens all parts of the African-American community, including the poor and the middle class."

The caucus began discussing its concerns with Frank and the administration several weeks ago. Frank hosted a meeting Monday night between caucus members, Geithner and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.

"You're talking about people whose constituents have been badly hammered by this," Frank said. "Given the nature of this recession, there needs to be some more conversations."

Frank said the caucus had concerns about whether minorities were being fairly represented in helping carry out Treasury's bailout programs and other federal efforts to resolve the financial crisis. The government has contracted out much of the work to Wall Street firms.

Congressional aides said the caucus's concerns are similar to those of the Democratic Party's liberal wing. Caucus members are pushing for legislation that would directly lead to new jobs by providing tax benefits, for example, that would provide incentives for home renovations and funding for new infrastructure projects. They also want to extend health-care and unemployment benefits.

Meanwhile, Geithner was taking a beating as he urged Congress to pass regulatory reform as quickly as possible, arguing that delay would create uncertainty for businesses across the country. Lawmakers sharply criticized him for his role in the crisis during the tense Joint Economic Committee meeting. They were particularly critical of his involvement in the decision, as president of the New York Fed, to bail out AIG.

But Geithner pressed forward: "To ensure the vitality, the strength and the stability of our economy going forward, we must bring our system of financial regulation into the 21st century. Nobody in my job should ever be in the position again of having to come into a crisis like this without those basic authorities."

Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, chose the marbled Caucus Room in the Russell Senate Office Building -- site of past hearings on Watergate, Pearl Harbor and the Wall Street abuses during the Great Depression -- to open debate on a massive draft bill designed to achieve the most ambitious reworking of the financial system in decades.

"This is one of those moments in our nation's history that compels us to be bold," Dodd said.

But soon, ranking committee Republican Richard C. Shelby (Ala.) took the floor, and for 18 uninterrupted minutes he opined that nearly every element of Dodd's bill was misinformed, uninformed, unnecessarily rushed or just plain flawed. "This committee has not done the necessary work to even begin discussing changes of this magnitude. Nevertheless, you have laid a bill before the committee," Shelby said. "I will be opposing this legislation. Not because we disagree on its ends, but rather on its means."

Shelby said Dodd was wrong not to conduct an investigation into the causes of the recent financial crisis before pushing forward with legislation. He said rather than ending the problem of institutions that are "too big to fail," the current bill expands the government's ability to bail out big banks. Shelby apologized for the length of his critique, expressed his hope that the two men might "yet find some common ground," and yielded the floor.

"Well," Dodd said in the morning's only moment of levity, "I thank you for the endorsement."

Staff writer David Cho contributed to this report.

オバマの弱腰外交

伊勢平次郎 — 2009-11-20T08:22:30+09:00

In China, Obama leaves more questions than he takes

By Dana Milbank
Thursday, November 19, 2009

Listening to President Obama and his Chinese counterpart this week, it was hard to tell who was Hu.

One is the leader of a great democracy. The other is the head of a repressive regime. But as the two men faced reporters in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, Obama deferred to the wishes of President Hu Jintao: They would not take questions. In lieu of this rite of freedom, the two leaders exchanged platitudes.

"We reached agreement in many important fields," the communist leader assured everybody.

"Our two governments have continued to move forward in a way that can bring even greater cooperation in the future," the democratic leader reciprocated.

It was, to put it charitably, a low-key way of spreading American values. A decade earlier, in that very same hall, President Bill Clinton criticized China's Tiananmen Square crackdown during a news conference with then-President Jiang Zemin. President George W. Bush, no fan of the media, made Hu squirm at the White House three years ago when he insisted that they take questions from U.S. and Chinese journalists.

Obama, by contrast, didn't hold a news conference in China. Instead, he answered questions in Shanghai from students, who were apparently members in good standing of the Communist Youth League (even so, the authorities declined to broadcast the session on state television). Elsewhere in Asia, Obama eschewed the usual format for news conferences with the leaders of Japan and South Korea, instead allowing one reporter from each side to ask a question at each appearance.

Members of the White House press corps traveling with Obama were baffled: Even Bush, the great unilateralist, had been more willing to mix it up with journalists, foreign and domestic, while abroad. After reporters complained to White House press secretary Robert Gibbs about a lack of communication, he issued a 61-word written statement worthy of the Politburo Standing Committee: "President Obama's visit to China has demonstrated the depth and breadth of the global and other challenges where US-China cooperation is critical," it began.

Other elements of Obama's Asian trip -- the bow to the Japanese emperor, the handshake with the Burmese prime minister -- have earned more attention, but Obama's reluctance to be challenged in public is more problematic. It sends a message to the world that contradicts his claim to the Chinese students that he is a better leader because he is forced "to hear opinions that I don't want to hear."

Instead of facing questioners in public, Obama invited correspondents from each American television network to come to his hotel for a series of one-on-one interviews of about 10 minutes apiece.

For the president, this was a low-risk alternative. Each reporter had to cover multiple topics, and that, by the White House's design, left little room for probing beyond the superficial. Obama told Fox News's Major Garrett, for example, that the White House is "taking a look" at tax provisions to encourage businesses to hire, but he didn't offer any specifics. He told CBS News's Chip Reid that he is "fine-tuning" his Afghanistan strategy, but he didn't say what it is. He gave CNN's Ed Henry the news that he is "absolutely confident" that health-care legislation will pass, but he didn't say in what form.

Then there were the requisite human-interest questions that the TV morning-show hosts love. NBC News's Chuck Todd asked whether the president had lost weight. "I'm eating fine and I'm sleeping fine," Obama reported. "My hair is getting gray." Henry asked whether Obama would read Sarah Palin's book. "You know, I probably won't," the president answered.

In that sense, Obama's Asian tour continued a pattern he has developed at home. He had five full news conferences at the White House during his first six months in office but has had none since July. That puts him roughly on par with Bush, who had four full White House news conferences in the same time. For Obama, who pledged to bring a new level of transparency to the presidency, that's hardly an impressive record.

Instead of subjecting himself to public inquisition, Obama has opted for the calm and cordiality of the tête-à-tête. He had done an impressive 134 sit-down interviews as president before leaving for China, according to CBS News's Mark Knoller, and his four in China brought the tally to 138.

It's easy to see why Obama prefers this format. Consider some of the questions that have arisen during these sessions:

"You picked the Tar Heels to win the national championship, didn't you?

"You are very, very famous as a very cool man, but what don't you like about yourself?"

"Golf. What does it do for you?"

"How do you relax?"

"Have the girls had kids over after school?"

"Do you get to read them a story at night, tuck them in bed?"

With questions like these, even President Hu might start talking to the press.

闇の監獄・暗黒大陸中国(その１）

伊勢平次郎 — 2009-11-18T16:20:50+09:00

China criticized over alleged 'black jails'
November 12, 2009 6:34 a.m. EST

Human Rights Watch report:

Chinese citizens illegally detained in secret jails
Chinese spokesperson: "I can tell you that there is no such black jails in China"
HRW alleges facilities used to detain citizens who traveled to cities to file complaints
Report says detainees beaten, abused, threatened and intimidated

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- Chinese authorities should abolish secret jails used to unlawfully detain citizens who travel to the capital and other major cities to file complaints, Human Rights Watch says.

For the past six years, citizens have been held without communication in so-called black jails, often located in state-owned hotels, nursing homes and psychiatric hospitals, according to a new report from the human rights group.

Most of the detainees are from rural areas and travel to major cities to submit grievances at petitions and appeals offices, which address cases without going to court, Human Rights Watch said.

Government officials and security forces often beat, abuse, threaten and intimidate the detainees to ensure that their complaints do not draw attention, according to the report.

"The existence of black jails in the heart of Beijing makes a mockery of the Chinese government's rhetoric on improving human rights and respecting the rule of law," said Sophie Richardson, Asia advocacy director of Human Rights Watch.

"The government should move swiftly to close these facilities, investigate those running them and provide assistance to those abused in them."

China has repeatedly denied the existence of secret jails, and the ministry of foreign affairs reiterated that stance Thursday.

"I'm not sure what evidence the report of Human Rights Watch is based on," the office said in a statement. "However, I can tell you that there is no such black jails in China."

The judicial system will deal with relevant cases, the ministry said.

"If there is any suggestion or complaint from Chinese people toward our government, they can appeal to relevant departments through normal and legal channels, and their legitimate rights will be protected."

But the rights group said the jails are becoming more popular because officials are penalized if too many grievances come from their jurisdictions. Areas with fewer complaints are rewarded, it said.

In the report, titled, "An Alleyway in Hell," the group said it had interviewed 38 people who have been detained in the facilities.

The detainees include people under 18, which violates China's commitments to children's rights, Human Rights Watch said.

A 15-year-old told the group she was seized in Beijing while petitioning on behalf of her crippled father, who was subjected to beatings at his nursing home.

"To visit these kinds of abuses on citizens, who have already been failed repeatedly by the legal system, is the height of hypocrisy," Richardson said.

The New York-based organization urged the U.S. president to address human rights issues during his trip to Asia, which starts Thursday and will include a stop in China.

"President Barack Obama has spoken forcefully about the importance of defending human rights globally," said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch. " ... The test now is whether he will do so in a country where the government remains profoundly hostile to these concepts."

CNN's Helena Hong contributed to this report.

北京のオバマ

伊勢平次郎 — 2009-11-18T15:40:55+09:00

In Obama's China trip, a stark contrast with the past. The U.S. tone toward Beijing is now much more conciliatory

Obama travels to Asia

President Obama embarks on a nine-day tour of Asian countries, including Japan, Singapore, China and South Korea. Obama is expected to address topics such as security, environment, the economy and U.S.-Asia relations.

Obama travels to China

Explore key events highlighting U.S. relations with China since 1972.

By Andrew Higgins and Anne E. Kornblut
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, November 18, 2009

BEIJING -- President Obama has emerged from his first trip to China with no big breakthroughs on important issues, such as Iran's nuclear program or China's currency. Yet after two days of talks with the United States' biggest creditor, the administration asserted that relations between the two countries are at "an all-time high."

ANALYSIS: In Obama's China trip, a stark contrast with the past

Although one concrete advance emerged -- that the United States may offer a target for carbon-emission cuts to boost climate negotiations in Copenhagen next month if China offers its own proposal -- it was a relatively small step for a new president who had campaigned on a promise to enact far-reaching change in U.S. diplomatic interactions.

If there was any significant change during this trip, in fact, it was in the United States' newly conciliatory and sometimes laudatory tone. In a joint appearance with President Hu Jintao on Tuesday, Obama hailed China as an economic partner that has "proved critical in our effort to pull ourselves out of the worst recession in generations." The day before, speaking to students in Shanghai, he described China's rising prosperity as "an accomplishment unparalleled in human history."

Obama's trip stood in stark contrast to visits by his predecessors. But this reflected not so much a policy shift by a new administration in Washington as a dramatic and much bigger change in the power dynamic, particularly in economics, over the past decade -- a change that has been the central undercurrent of Obama's swing through China this week.

In 1998, when President Bill Clinton stood before television cameras in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, the United States owed more money to Spain than to China and did more than twice as much trade with Mexico. At a freewheeling news conference, Clinton criticized China's military crackdown a decade earlier in Tiananmen Square and traded spirited jibes with President Jiang Zemin.

On Tuesday, Obama stood in the same building alongside another Chinese leader. This time, with the United States in hock to China for more than $1 trillion dollars and flooded with Chinese-made goods, it was a Chinese-style news conference. Each leader read a prepared statement and eyed the other in silence. There were no questions.

Since leaving Washington last Thursday for an eight-day tour of Asia, Obama has occasionally nudged China on issues such as Tibet and Internet censorship. But he has more often trumpeted China's achievements and pleaded with Beijing for increased help on the world stage.

China returned the effusiveness in its music selection at a state dinner for Obama on Tuesday night. The People's Liberation Army serenaded him and other U.S. officials with "I Just Called to Say I Love You," "In the Mood" and "We Are the World," as Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton sat on either side of the Chinese president over a steak dinner.

In many ways, the United States and China have never been closer, as reflected in a raft of joint projects outlined during Obama's visit here. Ahead of meetings with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Wednesday, Obama said the relationship is deepening beyond trade and economics to cover climate, security and other matters of international concern. Those would include previously announced and now reinvigorated efforts on stem-cell research, crime prevention and military contacts. But with the rituals and even the substance of the two nations' interactions increasingly on Chinese terms, Obama advisers insisted that their overtures and polite tone are in pursuit of long-term results, a reflection of China's growing importance.

When President Clinton visited China in 1998, the United States was still basking in its position as Cold War victor and the world's sole superpower. It sought China's help on only a narrow range of international issues, such as the spread of missile technology and North Korea. China was just shaking off the stigma of the 1989 crackdown. It was the seventh-biggest holder of U.S. Treasury securities. Today, China is the nation's biggest creditor and its trade with the United States has grown sevenfold.

Also changed are the faces in the Chinese leadership. Jiang, Clinton's 1998 sparring partner in the Great Hall of the People, was an often boisterous character who liked to sing, and also comb his hair, in public. Hu, Obama's host, is a far more buttoned-down and cautious sort.

Clinton could not tell Chinese leaders what to do. Indeed, he had to abandon a big push on human rights when China simply said no. And his challenge to Jiang over Tiananmen was paired with a significant concession over Taiwan.

But Clinton and other U.S. presidents never needed China's help nearly as much as Obama's America needs Hu's.

Whether as a creditor, an emitter of greenhouse gases or a neighbor of Afghanistan, China has clout that the United States now desperately needs. "The U.S.-China relationship has gone global," said Jon Huntsman Jr., the new U.S. ambassador to Beijing and a fluent Chinese speaker.

At the same time, however, China has been far more insistent about asserting its will, most obviously in small but symbolically significant matters of stage management. A town hall-style meeting in Shanghai that the White House had hoped would allow the president to reach out to ordinary Chinese was drained of spontaneity by Chinese-scripted choreography. Tuesday's news conference had no questions, at China's behest.

The Obama White House said it pushed back against restrictions, and it denied that the nation's indebtedness to China has made it any less forceful.

Referring to the fact that China holds Treasury securities worth nearly $800 billion, as well as billions more in other forms of U.S. debt, Michael Froman, economic adviser on the National Security Council, said "the $800 billion never came up in conversation."

"The president dealt with every issue on his agenda in a very direct way and pulled no punches," he said.

U.S. officials insisted that, despite constraints, Obama still got his message to the Chinese public. State television provided live coverage of his Tuesday appearance with Hu, which featured an appeal by the U.S. president on human rights.

"America's bedrock beliefs that all men and women possess certain fundamental human rights," Obama said, "are universal rights" that "should be available to all people." He also urged China to resume talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader.

White House officials described Obama as even more forceful behind closed doors, suggesting that the administration is more eager to engage with reality than grandstand. Obama had "as direct a discussion of human rights as I've seen by any high-level visitor with the Chinese" when he met with Hu, said Jeffrey Bader, the National Security Council's chief Asia hand, who also worked for President Clinton.

Furthermore, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said, the administration had not expected "that the waters would part and everything would change

NIPPON FALCONS LEAGUE

米輸出大国をめざす？

怒る米国議会がオバマに向かって行った

オバマの弱腰外交

闇の監獄・暗黒大陸中国(その１）

北京のオバマ

NIPPON　FALCONS　LEAGUE