NIPPON FALCONS LEAGUE

Our blog's intention is to request the US government to grant us a chance to defend our mother country Japan at the American court of law regarding the resolution "Comfort Women" passed July 30, 07.

チャイナ経済7%後退になると

China Rate Rise Signals Shift to Slower Growth

チャイナの景気は後退する。まあ、よく知られた予測だわな。7%に落ちると。すると、まず、工業原材料(原油、銅、鉄、レアメタル、レアアース)などの価格が下がるだろうと。チャイナの大問題は、エネルギー源だ。原油に払うカネがないとなれば、ウラン鉱に投資は向かう(伊勢の予測)だろう。伊勢平次郎 ルイジアナ

By ANDREW PEAPLE

China's Christmas Day interest-rate rise was a fresh sign of Beijing's determination to cool inflation, even if it means slower growth in 2011. It also should be a wake-up call for those, such as commodity market bulls, who believe in perpetually high Chinese growth.

Over the next decade, double-digit-percentage Chinese growth is likely to become the exception rather than the norm it has been over the last 10 years. The World Bank expects China's potential annual growth rate to drop to about 7% between 2016 and 2020, compared with 9.6% from 1995 to 2009.

That slower expansion will come about mostly from a less rapid pace of investment growth, a natural result of the economy's maturation. Beijing already wants to downplay investment as the economy's main driver, shifting the emphasis to more household spending, so that consumers feel more of the benefits of China's economic development.

On the World Bank's forecasts, then, gross-domestic-product growth of 7.9% in 2015 should exceed investment growth of 7%. By contrast, in 2009, investment growth of 18% on year drove an 8.7% GDP growth rate.

In turn, this likely will see a decline in China's "commodity intensity," the amount of commodities used per unit of output, as, for example, the country's service sector expands relative to heavy industry and Beijing puts a greater emphasis on energy efficiency.

This more downbeat outlook for China's economy has implications for forecasts of commodity demand. Capital Economics, a research group, says that China's demand for commodities could more than quadruple by 2025 on the assumption that annual growth remains at 10% a year and the economy's commodity intensity is unchanged. Slow that assumed growth rate to 6% a year by 2020, along with a 2%-a-year slippage in the economy's reliance on commodities, and that demand level would be halved.

Such figures should sober commodities bulls after any Christmas excess.

Write to Andrew Peaple at andrew.peaple@dowjones.com

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チャイナの製鉄に黄信号

China's Steely Resolve Faces a Challenge

“チャイナの製鉄は世界の45%だ。製鉄情報によると、昨年、チャイナは568、000、000メトッリック・トンも生産したと。1979年に比べて、16.5倍の生産量だ。チャイナの驚くべき経済成長の象徴である。だが、この「鉄」は、チャイナの経済バランスをも示す。鉄鋼ブローカーのCLSAは、製鉄工場はどんどん閉鎖中だが、来援は、830、000、000だろうと。だが、収益は3%以下なのだ”

(解説)一般の日本人には、チャイナはうっとうしい存在だ。だが、この鉄のように、「市場や需要」がある限りは、日中貿易およびチャイナ投資は続く。アメリカも同じだ。この記事は、チャイナのインフレに警鐘を鳴らしている。製鉄業界にそのインフレは明確に現れていると。伊勢平次郎 ルイジアナ

By LIAM DENNING

Steel is more than just a metal. A century ago, Europe's old empires were measured against each other by how much of it they could produce.

On that basis, China is a world beater, accounting for 45% of global output, according to Steel Market Intelligence. Last year, it produced 568 million metric tons, 16.5 times 1979's level, a striking illustration of China's rise.

Steel also demonstrates the country's imbalances. Broker CLSA pegs capacity at 750 million metric tons. Despite directives to close plants, CLSA reckons it will rise to 830 million metric tons in 2012. Little wonder the sector's pretax profit margin has averaged less than 3% this year.

Chinese steel prices rallied in the summer as power cuts, resulting from another government initiative to hit energy-efficiency targets, took capacity offline temporarily. This is now returning, with October's output the highest since June. As a result, prices of steelmaking ingredients have risen. Citigroup says iron ore has rallied 42% since July.

Given razor-thin margins, Chinese steelmakers will try to pass on these rising costs. This will stoke the already rising inflation, itself resulting from Beijing's stimulus splurge after the financial crisis. Letting the yuan rise would mitigate some of that, but also risk hurting key export industries.

Instead, Beijing appears set to continue relying on such administrative measures as price controls and raising bank reserve requirements to curb inflation.

The alternative would be to increase interest rates more aggressively than Christmas Day's quarter-percentage-point move. This would also rein in excessive investment in fixed assets like steel plants. It is, however, undesirable for Beijing to do this, not least because of the damage this might inflict on Chinese banks' existing loan books.

The history of recent decades makes it unwise to dismiss Beijing's micromanagement skills. But the challenge is intensifying. Witness Wednesday's increase in state-set gasoline prices to curb demand, itself artificially boosted by subsidies. That will add to inflationary pressure.

As the temperature rises in the workshop of the world, the danger of a sudden dousing hangs over not just China, but the commodities and securities markets tied to it.

Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com



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チャイナのインフレは深刻

China inflation 12.8.10

>>チャイナのインフレの根本原因は「マネーサプライ」の急増にある。人民元が大量に供給されたあとをインフレが追っかけている。そのインフレは、12ヶ月から18ヶ月も続く。中国政府は最近になって、引き締め政策に転換している。銀行への貸付(クレジット)の公的利息を上げ、銀行の保有金のハードルを上げたのだ。だが、、<<

(解説)記者は、「食料の高騰が最もインフレに現れる。だからといって、値段規制したり、食料の供給を増やせば直るということではない。ここでは、銀行への年間貸付高(クオーター制)が最も重要な鍵だ」と書いている。その引き締め策のクオーターはテスト中だ。当然のことに、銀行は貸付を減らす。その結果は経済が鈍化するということだ。11月の結果が間もなく報告される。伊勢は、この結果は恐いなと思う。チャイナ発の景気後退が考えられるからだ。伊勢平次郎 ルイジアナ

China's Inflation Is A Monetary Phenomenon
By AARON BACK

It's not just the weather. China's inflation problem has deeper roots, and getting it under control means taking a harder line with the country's banks.

Consumer price gains have been topping China's annual target of 3% since May. For much of this time, the inflation was dismissed as a blip after unusual summer weather. Since food accounts for a third of the consumer price basket, the mantra was that a good harvest later in the year would bring the overall figures down.

.
That hasn't happened, despite a good harvest, and Beijing is changing its tone. Last week the government declared a shift to "prudent" monetary policy next year from "moderately loose" currently. Controlling inflation isn't as simple as capping prices and boosting the supply of agricultural commodities.

Certainly, weather has played a role in the volatility of food prices, but a greater predictor of price changes, including food prices, is money supply. Growth in money supply peaked only last November, and tends to lead inflation by 12 to 18 months.

This observation has two key implications. First, prices could keep rising, because the full impact of last year's unprecedented lending binge has yet to unfold. Second, much of Beijing's anti-inflation efforts to date—targeting the supply of food—are beside the point.

The good news is that policy makers have several tools at their disposal to get a grip on money-supply growth. The central bank has already started raising benchmark interest rates and the ratio of deposits that banks must hold in reserve.

The single most important lever, however, is China's annual lending target—a quota on new credit issued by banks. But pulling this one won't be easy. China's banks have already tested regulators' resolve to enforce the quota by lending out 92% of this year's 7.5 trillion yuan allotment by the end of October.

Sticking to the quota, then, would mean banks have to cut back sharply on lending this month. More likely is that authorities have cut the banks some slack, and some are betting that data for November, expected this week, could show that.

If that's the case, even a lowered quota at the start of the new year won't be taken too seriously. What's more, lending tends to surge in the early months of the year as the quota is reset.

To be sure, the Chinese policy makers' dilemma is that lending has been a key driver of economic growth, and cutting it back may mean accepting lower growth rates.

But with total money-supply growth already ahead of official targets, Beijing needs to get serious about the root cause of inflation. That means restoring its authority over the country's banks.

Write to Aaron Back at aaron.back@dowjones.com

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フォーリン・アフェアズ 「チャイナの挑戦」

The Game Changer

>>チャイナが外交攻勢に変じた。小平の「ひたすらに我慢」からの転進である。13億の人口はやはり問題だ。環境~資源獲得~社会不安、、そのためには、もはや、外からの情報では不足だ。g資源獲得には軍拡が必要だ。さらに、世界のルールもチャイなが決める、、<<

ま、読んで下さいな。エコノミー女史は、アジア研究所の上級研究員。文章は、柔らかいが、警告を出している。伊勢平次郎 ルイジアナ

Coping With China's Foreign Policy Revolution
By Elizabeth C. Economy

November/December 2010

ELIZABETH C. ECONOMY is C. V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

After decades of following Deng Xiaoping's dictum "Hide brightness, cherish obscurity," China's leaders have realized that maintaining economic growth and political stability on the home front will come not from keeping their heads low but rather from actively managing events outside China's borders. As a result, Beijing has launched a "go out" strategy designed to remake global norms and institutions. China is transforming the world as it transforms itself. Never mind notions of a responsible stakeholder; China has become a revolutionary power.

China's leaders have spent most of the country's recent history proclaiming a lack of interest in shaping global affairs. Their rhetoric has been distinctly supportive of the status quo: China helping the world by helping itself; China's peaceful rise; and China's win-win policy are but a few examples. Beijing has been a reluctant host for the six-party talks on North Korea, it has tried to avoid negotiations over Iran's potential as a nuclear power, and it has generally not concerned itself with others' military and political conflicts. China's impact on the rest of the world has, in many respects, been unintentional -- the result of revolutions within the country. As the Chinese people have changed how they live and how they manage their economy, they have had a profound impact on the rest of the world. China's position as the world's largest contributor to global climate change is not by design; it is the result of extraordinary economic growth and 1.3 billion people relying on fossil fuels for their energy needs.

Yet all this is about to change. China's leaders once tried to insulate themselves from greater engagement with the outside world; they now realize that fulfilling their domestic needs demands a more activist global strategy. Rhetorically promoting a "peaceful international environment" in which to grow their economy while free-riding on the tough diplomatic work of others is no longer enough. Ensuring their supply lines for natural resources requires not only a well-organized trade and development agenda but also an expansive military strategy. The Chinese no longer want to be passive recipients of information from the outside world; they want to shape that information for consumption at home and abroad. And as their economic might expands, they want not only to assume a greater stake in international organizations but also to remake the rules of the game.

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プロフィール

伊勢平次郎

Author:伊勢平次郎
Author: Nobuyoshi Ozaki

A long forty six years have passed since I stepped on to American soil. I have had various odd jobs in the past until I recently retired. Examples include working with Steven Spielberg as assistant director in a film called "1941." I was supervisor and later became Public Relation representative for Toyota Group - USA. My last occupation was a Senior Research analyst working in Silicone Valley for a major news paper from Tokyo, Japan. My spouse, Christine is a flight attendant, traveling often to the Middle East and Africa. We have spent three quarters of our life together as world adventurers. This photo was taken in Argentina. We now live in swampy Louisiana.

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