NIPPON FALCONS LEAGUE

Our blog's intention is to request the US government to grant us a chance to defend our mother country Japan at the American court of law regarding the resolution "Comfort Women" passed July 30, 07.

国債デフォルトの危険とは

The Dangers of a Default Position

By RICHARD BARLEY

Associated Press

The default debate has gone global: In both the U.S. and Europe, markets are confronting questions about the sanctity of government debt. If handled wrong, this risks triggering a fresh financial crisis.

European politicians and central bankers are at loggerheads over whether Greece's private creditors can accept changes to their terms without triggering a default. In the U.S., there is talk of a "technical" default on Treasurys if agreement cannot reached in Washington on raising the debt ceiling.


Reuters

A key risk from Greece is that a default of any sort would pile pressure on Ireland and Portugal.
.The problem: If it looks like a default and smells like a default, it probably is a default. Using the word "technical" doesn't change the reality if some Treasurys aren't paid on time. The same goes for Europe. Even if banks "voluntarily" roll over their debt, it is hard to see that as truly an act of free will. Standard & Poor's downgrade of Greece to triple-C—making it the lowest-rated sovereign in the world—specifically fingers the latest German debt swap proposal as a default.

Europe's politicians may end up lending Greece more money, as the European Central Bank clearly opposes anything that resembles a default. U.S. politicians may agree to raise the debt ceiling from $14.3 trillion before the cut-off date of Aug. 2. Even after that, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner can prioritize outgoings to favor debt payments. But with a monthly budget deficit of $124 billion, according to Fitch, the risk to debt service will build quickly. On Aug. 15, $52 billion of payments are due.

What if politics means bond payments stop?

A key risk from Greece is that a default of any sort would pile pressure on Ireland and Portugal, where debt dynamics aren't as bad, to follow suit. The ultimate risk is contagion upending Spain, whose €1.1 trillion ($1.59 trillion) economy is too big to bail out.

.In the U.S., there are three main channels through which financial turmoil can spread. First, short-term funding may be disrupted. As investor Stanley Druckenmiller argues, holders of long-dated Treasurys might accept a short delay in payments in exchange for the political face-off in Washington leading to a credible program for fiscal repair. But those holding maturing debt are unlikely to agree. For money-market funds, liquidity is everything: a failure to pay risks a new Lehman-like run.

Second, more than $4 trillion of Treasurys are used as collateral for repurchase agreements, futures and derivatives, J.P. Morgan Chase notes. A greater discount on this collateral due to increased credit risk could cause turmoil.

And third, while U.S. investors might stick with Treasurys, foreign lenders may see it as another reason, on top of the falling dollar, to reduce exposure.

There is one key difference between the two situations. Greek credit risk is real, given a soaring debt burden, loss of market access, shrinking economy and the country's inability to print euros. The default debate is necessary, although it has been poorly handled.

The U.S. default threat, by contrast, is unnecessary and threatens to introduce credit risk into what has been seen as the safest asset in the world— a dangerous development. With the global financial system still so fragile, this isn't the time for politicians to raise the stakes.
このページのトップへ

ゲーツ長官 “南シナ海には行動基準合意が必要”

Gates Warns of South China Sea Clashes Without Code of Conduct Agreement

“南シナ海は、国際間の行動基準合意なしには、軍事衝突が起きる”とロバート・ゲーツ長官。第二次大戦終了以来、米国は、日本、フィリッピン、タイとは軍事同盟を結び、台湾には安全保障をギャランテイしている。そこへ、マレーシア、ベトナムが米国側に歩み寄っている。全て、中国がこれらの国の領域の3倍もの領域を主張するためである。中国の外交報道官は、“中国の主権が及ぶ領域で、ガス田や石油を掘るのは違法だ”と主張している。実際に、中国海軍による砲撃も起きている。中国はこれらの国の共通の敵となっている。

この事態の中で、世界経済第三位の工業先進国の日本が“守られる側”に立っている。現憲法の改正を急ぎ~集団自衛権を発効して~有事の時には、同盟国アメリカの重荷を軽減するのが日本の義務である。

一方で、日中通商も見直す時期に来た。有事のときに、日本が対中貿易を減らせば(もう減っているが)、ヒステリー症の中国政府は報復の手に出る。共産党独裁の中国は必ず南シナ海で問題を起こす。東北大震災復興が始まるが、このときでも、やることはやらなければならない。少なくとも、軍事行動が出来るように法律の整備だけは済ませて置かなければならない。伊勢平次郎 ルイジアナ

By Daniel Ten Kate - Jun 4, 2011 11:00 AM CT

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned that more clashes will occur in the South China Sea if nations vying for oil and gas in the waters fail to agree on ways to avoid confrontations.

“I fear that without rules of the road and without agreed approaches to dealing with these problems, that there will be clashes,” Gates said yesterday at the annual IISS Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. “That serves nobody’s interest.”

The defense ministers of Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, all of which have disputes with China in the sea, will speak on maritime security issues today. Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie is scheduled to give a keynote address on China’s international security cooperation.

Tensions have risen in the South China Sea in the past month. The Philippines filed a diplomatic protest after Chinese vessels were seen in an area claimed by both countries, and Vietnam last week said Chinese ships cut survey cables of a boat operated by Vietnam Oil & Gas Group, or PetroVietnam.

China’s claims to most of the South China Sea have sparked protests from neighboring countries that rely on the U.S. Navy as a stabilizing force in the strategic lanes. Exxon Mobil Corp., Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) and Forum Energy Plc are all planning exploration activities in blocks with Chinese claims.

‘Space for Diplomacy’

“Disputes in the South China Sea appear to be growing in intensity and even bringing naval forces into contact with each other,” said John Chipman, director-general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The meeting in Singapore “will be an important opportunity to reduce tensions and offer space for diplomacy,” he said in opening remarks on June 3.

China asserts “indisputable sovereignty” over most of the South China Sea, including oil and gas fields more than three times further from its coast than they are from Vietnam.

“It would be a mistake for us to see China as an adversary,” Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said in a speech on June 3. “If we treat China in a very constructive, positive way, I’m more than convinced that the Chinese will respond positively to us.”

Najib said he’s “optimistic” the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations can sign a binding code of conduct in the waters. China and Asean have struggled to reach an agreement that builds on a less formal 2002 pact.

Such an accord “would clarify” many of the recent clashes in the sea, Gates said.

Biggest Spenders

China and the U.S. are the world’s biggest spenders on arms. The Pentagon is requesting $671 billion for fiscal 2012 starting Oct. 1, $37 billion less than this year’s request. China plans to increase defense spending 12.7 percent this year to 601.1 billion yuan ($92.8 billion), a figure U.S. analysts say underestimates actual outlays.

Exploration in waters under China’s jurisdiction infringes its “sovereignty and interests and is illegal,” the Foreign Ministry in Beijing said May 12. China has bolstered its forces over the past decade, procuring nuclear-powered submarines and developing an aircraft carrier, according to a Defense Department report in August.

The U.S., which has defense treaties with the Philippines and Thailand and guarantees Taiwan’s security, has patrolled Asia-Pacific waters since World War II. Gates reiterated concerns this week over China’s development of advanced military technology, including anti-ship ballistic missiles.

To contact the reporter on this story: Daniel Ten Kate in Singapore at dtenkate@bloomberg.net

このページのトップへ

プロフィール

伊勢平次郎

Author:伊勢平次郎
Author: Nobuyoshi Ozaki

A long forty six years have passed since I stepped on to American soil. I have had various odd jobs in the past until I recently retired. Examples include working with Steven Spielberg as assistant director in a film called "1941." I was supervisor and later became Public Relation representative for Toyota Group - USA. My last occupation was a Senior Research analyst working in Silicone Valley for a major news paper from Tokyo, Japan. My spouse, Christine is a flight attendant, traveling often to the Middle East and Africa. We have spent three quarters of our life together as world adventurers. This photo was taken in Argentina. We now live in swampy Louisiana.

最近の記事

最近のコメント

最近のトラックバック

月別アーカイブ

カテゴリー

FC2カウンター

ブロとも申請フォーム

この人とブロともになる

ブログ内検索

RSSフィード

リンク

このブログをリンクに追加する