Soros Adviser Turned Lawmaker Sees Crisis by 2020: Japan Credit
By Mariko Ishikawa, Kenneth Kohn & Yumi Ikeda - Sep 27, 2013 2:00 AM CT
Takeshi Fujimaki, a former adviser to billionaire George Soros and now a member of Japan’s upper house of parliament, said a fiscal crisis in Asia’s second-biggest economy is inevitable and neither a higher sales tax nor the 2020 Olympics will be able to stop it.
“I decided to become a politician because I think financial crisis will come sooner or later,” Fujimaki said in a Sept. 24 interview in Tokyo. “This total debt will continue to increase. I don’t think Japan can survive until 2020.”Buy Link
Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds may jump to 70 percent based on what happened in Russia when it defaulted in 1998, Fujimaki said. The benchmark yield is now the lowest in the world at 0.68 percent and the cost to protect the sovereign debt from default is near a four-month low at 62 basis points.
Before sweeping to power in December elections, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party outlined in 2011 a plan known as the X-day project to fend off a potential bond crash. Public debt totaled 924.4 trillion yen ($9.37 trillion) that year and has ballooned to more than one quadrillion yen, more than twice Japan’s gross domestic product, the highest ratio globally. Abe is set to decide on Oct. 1 whether to raise the 5 percent consumption levy.
“It’s inevitable we will see a very big mess and the LDP has to step down,” said Fujimaki, who won his upper house seat on a Japan Restoration Party ticket in the July 21 ballot.Market Principles
The Bank of Japan is aiming to stoke 2 percent inflation in two years by buying more than 7 trillion yen of JGBs a month. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 0.8 percent in August from a year earlier, the fastest increase since 2008, as energy costs climbed, the statistics bureau said today.
“Because the BOJ is buying huge amounts of JGBs, market principles in this country do not work,” Fujimaki, who served as managing director and treasurer in Tokyo at Morgan Guarantee Trust Co., which later merged into JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Monetary easing is creating a JGB bubble. Sooner or later the market will reflect credit risk.”
The core inflation gauge will climb 1.3 percent in the year starting April 2014 and 1.9 percent in fiscal 2015, BOJ board members forecast in July, excluding the effects of a planned sales-tax increase to 8 percent in April and 10 percent in 2015.Captive Audience
The International Monetary Fund estimates Japan’s debt will grow to 245 percent of GDP this year. The nation will spend 22.2 trillion yen servicing its debt in the fiscal year begun in April, accounting for more than half of total tax revenue and occupying about 24 percent of the government’s budget, according to Finance Ministry estimates in January.
Japan will implement more than 5 trillion yen of stimulus measures in the year starting April 2014 and tax breaks of as much as 500 billion yen for companies making capital investments, Asahi newspaper said on Sept. 21, without citing anyone. In a reform plan known as Abenomics, the prime minister has pledged to defeat 15 years of deflation using the so-called three arrows of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and a package of growth-oriented initiatives.
“Institutional investors in Japan are a captive domestic audience,” Ryutaro Kono, the chief Japan economist in Tokyo at BNP Paribas SA, said on Sept. 25. “The gist of Abenomics is monetization,” he said referring to the practice of central banks financing government deficits.
Abe will announce his decision on the sales tax on Oct. 1 after the release of the BOJ’s Tankan survey of business sentiment.Political Responsibility
“We will not be able to avoid a crisis with a consumption tax increase, but it is our responsibility as politicians to raise it,” according to Fujimaki, who says the levy needs to be 35 percent to 40 percent. “Corporate tax should be cut so Japanese companies can be competitive globally. We need to make our best effort to improve the economy to delay this coming crisis.”
Takatoshi Ito, the dean of Tokyo University’s Graduate School of Public Policy, said earlier this week Japan can avert disaster by raising the tax to at least 20 percent by 2020.
“There is a narrow path to escape from the disaster,” Ito, who leads an investment panel for the 121 trillion yen Government Pension Investment Fund, said in an interview on Sept. 24.
The yen rose 0.3 percent to 98.67 per dollar as of 3:53 p.m. in Tokyo, and has lost about 12 percent in 2013. It touched a 4 1/2 year low of 103.74 on May 22. The currency will end the year at 102 and will slide to 110 in 2014, according to median estimates of economists.120 Yen
“If the yen goes up to 120 per dollar, Mr. Abe doesn’t need a third arrow,” according to Fujimaki, who expects the currency to drop to as low as 1,000 when Japan faces hyper-inflation in the next two years. “Japan just has to make a weak yen: there would be no need for a fiscal stimulus package or any sad arrows.”
Fujimaki joined the Tokyo office of Morgan Guarantee Trust Co., which merged into JPMorgan Chase & Co., in 1985 and later served as managing director and treasurer. He was hired by Soros Fund Management, once the world’s biggest hedge fund group, in 2000 and stayed less than a year, saying to Bloomberg News at the time that he failed to read the Japanese bond market correctly. He has been predicting an eventual default in Japan since at least 2009.
Tokyo beat out Madrid and Istanbul to stage the 2020 games in a Sept. 7 decision by the International Olympic Committee, bringing the event back to Japan’s capital for the first time since 1964. By that time, the nation will have already gone through its financial crisis and be on an upswing, Fujimaki said.
“The Olympics will come at the time of a booming economy,” he said. During that period of economic growth “maybe 5 or 6 percent are reasonable levels for the 10-year yield.”
藤巻 健史（ふじまき たけし、1950年6月3日 - ）は、日本の債券・為替・株式トレーダー、経済評論家、政治家。モルガン銀行東京支店長などを経て、参議院議員。
The PRC amphibian attack force.
The PRC has 2 of this type of landing ship, the 3rd is under construction in Shanghai.
Amphibian tanks and hovercrafts will land on the beaches of Senkaku Islands. No... Japanese defense forces on the islands.
Whether having no military posts on the islands is a decision of P.M. Abe’s or the request of the US is unknown to the public. This is odd especially when Japan claims the islands are her sovereign territory. Kerry spells out policy on Senkaku Islands
Published: April 15, 2013 at 2:11 AM
TOKYO, April 15 (UPI) -- The United States recognizes the Senkaku Islands are under Japan's administration but doesn't take a stand on their ultimate sovereignty, its top diplomat said.
Secretary of State John Kerry, concluding his Asia visit in Japan, commented on the East China Sea islands, which have become a source of serious territorial dispute between Japan and China. Tensions over their rival claims have led to violent protests in China and adversely affected their bilateral trade. The United States remains concerned that the issue should not get out of control.
Appearing with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida at a news conference, Kerry said in his talks he reiterated U.S. principles governing the policy on the Senkaku.
"The United States, as everybody knows, does not take a position on the ultimate sovereignty of the islands. But we do recognize that they are under the administration of Japan," Kerry said. "And we obviously want all the parties to deal with territorial issues through peaceful means."
The U.S. visitor said any action that raises tensions or leads to miscalculations would affect peace, stability and prosperity of an entire region.
"And so we oppose any unilateral or coercive action that would somehow aim at changing the status quo," Kerry said.
Kishida said while Japan-China relations are very important, he explained to Kerry that Japan cannot concede on issues of her sovereignty.
"I stated Japan is calling on China to reaffirm our mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interest, and I explained Japan's door is always open to dialogue," he said.
Answering a question, Kishida said there is "stable relationship" between the two major economies in the region and that both countries need to promote from a broad perspective the mutually beneficially relationship based on common strategic interests. Senator McCain said that the islands are Japanese
Senator John McCain of Arizona visited P.M. Abe in Tokyo, said that Senkaku Islands belong to Japan. His remarks are quickly denied by the US State Department.
Myself and millions of Japanese citizens appreciated the Senator’s support for Japan. We need for the rest of the Senate Foreign relations members to agree with Senator McCain. The US should declare that it will not tolerate aggression of any kind over the Senkaku Islands. America must vocally and physically stand by its ally in the Pacific. We all must work toward preventing any armed conflict, we should not wait for an attack then react. This is not a smart policy for any party.
South China Sea
West of Taiwan is the South China Sea. East of Taiwan is the East China Sea. The difference between these two bodies of water is the depth. South China Sea is mean depth of 3,976 feet (1,212 meters), while East China Sea is shallow. The PRC has 20 nuclear subs stored in tunnels at Hainan Island. They are an ex-Soviet model, the Han class submarine. These subs are quite large and noisy. The PRC also has another submarine base in Dairen behind Shantung Peninsula. Because the East China Sea is shallow, the US/Japan navy's PC-3 can monitor the Han sub leaving Dairen and can track their every movement. As mentioned earlier they are noisy and sonar can detect their course. At the moment, Chinese subs are contained within the South China Sea by the US/Japan submarine attack group. The US group consist of giant nuclear subs, namely the Los Angeles and Virginia. All are equipped with a trident nuclear missile head. Chinese subs can only go as far as the Philippines. Beyond that to the east, Saipan, Tinian and Guam are all lined up. Guam is a major US submarine base in the Pacific.Trident nuclear missileWhy so much submarine talk?
ICBMs are kept in silos. Once it is launched the US can detect it from any spy satellite above the sites, which are located in the Uighur state - eastern end of PRC. Kawamura Sumihiko, former sea chief, said that ICBM are no longer useful today. I agree. Bombers are equally useless. I agree. Therefore, nuclear subs with nuclear missiles are the most effective weapon today. The PRC shows signs of trying to equalize the nuclear submarine power with that of the US.
PRC’s frustration is that the US/Japan submarine technology and navigation skills are so superior and advanced to their own. Let's not forget they are also inside of the South China Sea and its boundaries. Japan has 20 subs. All of them are small, 2900 ton, 65 sailors, and their Swedish made sterling engines are silent. The Toshiba screws similar to wine corks screw are not detectable. Chinese Han subs cannot detect the whereabouts of these stealth Japanese subs.
Back to the Chinese situation. They know they must be able to exit and enter the South China Sea. Without this ability they are caged within their own waters. Even if it takes 100 years, the PRC is painfully aware that they need the Senkaku Islands. This is where they will build a fortress. If the PRC seizes the Senkakus.... Japan’s sea power diminishes as well as that of the US. The power balance of the Pacific will change. Taiwan and the Philippine islands will become vulnerable. The waters between the Philippines and Guam is critical for the passage of the US Seventh Fleet.
My wife and I visited Kadena Airbase on Okinawa in 2010. To my left is Colonel Hutchinson from Virginia. We had an honest and informative discussion about the potential conflict surrounding the Senkakus.
Well, today’s conclusion is that the PRC is not chasing resources such as fish or high grade Methane-gas. The PRC wants more than that, they have their sights on half of Pacific Ocean and nothing less.
~to be continued~
Battle of Okinawa
1944.4.1~1944.6.21 one of the biggest US beach landing operation. Senkaku is much smaller and more like theater than actual warfare.Battle of Senkaku Islands
In the past year the tension surrounding the disputed islands between Japan and the People's Republic of China has heated up. To clear up any confusion there will be a battle, large or small, on one or more of the inhabited islands off Okinawa. Senkakus, is the name the US officially calls these five islands. Three are relatively large where goats now peacefully wonder the hills. In my view these three islands will be targeted. I will write three or more articles for the American people. I want them to understand what could actually take place and why a battle would occur between these two large economies. Since WWII, 67 years ago, no battle or war has taken place in this area. This could be the first and it would be a modern military conflict, with modern technology on both sides.
Please note the maps the above. You will see Japan’s sovereign territories and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in white; within EEZ resources such as fish, natural gas, and minerals belong to Japan. Japan has sole ownership and can research in the waters of the EEZ. However, international maritime law allows foreign vessels even warships to enter and sail through the EEZ without obtaining permission from Japan. However, there are severe conditions that should not be violated. Foreign naval ships with guns and missiles shall not provoke nor show a military threat to the owner of EEZ, in this case it is Japan. The Chinese, Blue Water Navy, has broken this international law more than 1400 times by air and sea. Each incident has been reported and documented.
A geography of the area (refer to the map) is as follows... to the northwest is China... south is Taiwan. To Taiwan’s east are the Yaejima Islands. The dot is Yonaguni Island. The next two dots are Ishigaki Islands, the next is Miyako Island. These are all Japanese islands. To the northeast is the Okinawa main Island and remote Islands leads to the main land of Japan. The center is Senkakus- Uotsuri Jima in red. Why does the PRC want Senkaku islands so badly?
The answer is Senkaku Islands, China calls them Dioyu Islands, they are at a strategic point, same as Gibraltar, which is at the mouth of the Mediterranean Sea. Whoever controls Senkaku Islands controls the East China Sea. At this time, Japan and her ally United States control the East China Sea.
For PRC, to control Taiwan is their ultimate goal. PRC tried to take over Taiwan militarily during the Eisenhower administration and failed. PRC has faced several severe battles with the Taiwan military, backed by United States. China backed down. The PRC tried to undermine Li-Tou-Ki, Taiwan’s Independence advocate, to become president during the Clinton administration. Clinton ordered two aircraft carriers to the area sending a strong message to support Taiwan’s right of free election. Li became the president of Taiwian.
The PRC wants Senkaku islands so they can control the East China Sea. They will build missile bases on the Senkaku Islands to keep the US off Taiwan and eventually take control of Taiwan. The PRC will build naval ports around Taiwan to split the Pacific with United States. Will PRC succeed? It all depends on how solid the Japan/US alliance holds. The Taiwanese are carefully watching the recent confrontations between Japan and China.
~to be continued~